Several public polling projects have been conducted in the lead up to Ukraine’s parliamentary election. These polls have been conducted by well-established international polling firms as well as several companies in Ukraine. The polls cited below were conducted between August and October 2012. According to Ukrainian law, October 15th was the last day to publicly release polling data.
Every recent poll shows that the Party of Regions is well positioned to win the election and has consistently led in the polls, with less than a month to go. Polls show the Party of Regions earning between 27 and 29 percent of support, with an average of an 11-point lead over its nearest challenging party.
Additionally, polling shows UDAR and the United Opposition locked in a battle for second and third place, though neither party has been able to consolidate a decisive margin over the other at the end of the pre-election polling period. However, UDAR has clearly made substantial gains over the United Opposition.
If the current polling averages hold, Party of Regions, UO, UDAR, and the Communist Party will all cross the 5% threshold required to gain seats in the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine’s Parliament). That being said, Svoboda and Ukraine Forward! are on the margins and are fighting for eligibility – either or both party could well find themselves with the requisite 5% on Election Day but recent data has both parties under the required threshold.
Average of Publicly Available Polling Data – August through October
Below are six publicly released polls since the beginning of September, all showing the Party of Regions with a lead between 9 to 12 points. In some cases the same polls show UDAR in second position while others show the UO taking second.
Ukraine Parliamentary Election 2012, Polling Data (August – October 2012)
Summary of Publicly Available Polling Data: August through October
September 27 – October 9 survey by Research & Branding Group showed the following:
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27.8% Party of Regions
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19.4% Batkivshchyna United Opposition
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16.6% UDAR
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11.2% Communist Party
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4.7% Svoboda
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2.8% Ukraine-Forward
September 16 – October 2 survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology:
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28% Party of Regions
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17% UDAR Party
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16% Batkivshchyna United Opposition
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10% Communist Party
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5% Svoboda
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2% Ukraine-Forward!
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8% Undecided
September 15 – 27 survey conducted by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (USAID):
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27% Party of Regions
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15% Batkivshchyna United Opposition
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11% UDAR
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8% Communist Party
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4% Svoboda
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2% Ukraine-Forward!
September 12 – 27 survey by GfK NOP:
- 29% Party of Regions
- 19% Batkivshchyna United Opposition
- 18% UDAR
- 10% Communist Party
- 4% Svoboda
- 3% Ukraine-Forward!
- 7% Undecided
September 3 – 16 survey by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology:
- 28% Party of Regions
- 17% Batkivshchyna United Opposition
- 15% UDAR
- 10% Communist Party
- 5% Svoboda
- 3% Ukraine-Forward!
- 14% Undecided
August 20 – September 1 survey by GfK NOP:27% Party of Regions
- 16% Batkivshchyna United Opposition
- 14% UDAR
- 9% Communist Party
- 3% Svoboda
- 3% Ukraine-Forward!
- 10% Undecided
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